Half-solutions to the debt




Half-solutions to the debt

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In the wake of last week’s big, drawn-out legislative compromise over the passage of America’s 2011 operating budget, attention has quickly shifted to the matter of future budgets, and how to best avoid the same sort of agonizing partisan horse-trading every time the government needs money. While America’s sky-high deficit and debt levels remain far from resolved, there seems to be a growing consensus that the time has come for a single, comprehensive, adult solution to dealing with these problems, rather than just a lot of falsely scandalized fear and self-righteous outrage over these very old, omnipresent fiscal concerns.

It’s in this context that Wisconsin GOP Congressman Paul Ryan, currently the House budget chairman, has stepped, releasing an ambitious “budget blueprint” that sets out strict guidelines for the next ten years of US spending, which, if followed, will supposedly get the nation’s fiscal house in order. The plan, which is far more heady, intellectual, and serious than much of what passes for Republican policy these days, received largely favorable coverage in the press — at least initially — and was widely celebrated as a “visionary” and “courageous” document in official GOP circles. On Friday the Republican-controlled House of Representatives easily passed the Ryan plan on a strictly party-line vote, and though the plan will never pass the Senate or get President Obama’s signature, it will nevertheless serves as a very clear and accessible artifact of the conservative agenda for a long time to come.

What makes the Ryan plan so “congrageous” in the eyes of many right-wing observers is that it’s extremley unapologetic and shameless in how far it takes the principle of spending cuts. After ushering in $100 billion in cuts for the year 2012 — almost tripling the cuts that were approved for this year — Ryan’s plan continues cutting at similarly high levels, year after year, for the next decade, lowering the amount of government spending as a percentage of the GDP, as one article put it, “to levels not seen since the first half of the 20th century.”

Such cuts will come at the expense of federal departments like education and environmental regulation, but significantly, also Medicare and Medicaid, which had, until now, usually been considered third rails to even the most heard-hearted GOP politician. While Medicaid will simply be dumped on the states to pay for, the Ryan plan retains federal responsibility for Medicare, but also beings a process of gradually privatizing the seniors’ program of subsidized health care. In the same way many Republicans advocate government-backed “vouchers” to allow parents to enroll their kids in private schools, and minimize the need for state-managed ones, Ryan advocates giving seniors insurance vouchers so they can purchase medical coverage from the private sector, rather than a government-run insurer.

It’s a divisive and controversial strategy to be sure, but the degree to which it’s at least “a plan,” as opposed to just a collection of talking-points, goes a long way to explaining why initial reaction, even among those who are not ordinarily GOP-backers, was so commendatory. As the days have passed, however, the tide seems to be turning a bit. Though the Ryan plan was indeed brave for its bluntness, it was also remarkably uncourageous in its deference to traditional conservative sensibilities and sacred cows. Bush-era levels of defense spending — ones that exceed even the spending seen during the Cold War — remain protected, as are Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy. Corporate tax levels are likewise promised to be slashed down to 25%, a level that would swap America’s current status as the second-highest corporate tax region of the G7 to the lowest.

President Obama has already declared these conventionalities as evidence that the GOP is more the same than ever, and, in a speech last week, declared in some of his most robust language yet, that the era of compromise on the fundamental role of government was basically over. We need high taxes on the wealthy and big business in order to pay for the safety-net services government must provide, he said, using rhetoric that was clearly a gear-up to his 2012 re-election campaign. The Prez conceded that while some spending cuts will always be needed here and there, the idea of privatizing or abolishing the last remaining chunks of the post-war welfare state was a bridge too far, if not downright anti-American.

As Ryan was with conservatives, Obama’s latest non-compromising stance has been praised by liberals for its courage. But it’s just as conventional and safe. It’s clear that neither party is interested in comprehensive solutions to America’s fiscal mess, only plans that are half-solution, half voodoo magic. Raising taxes and cutting entitlement spending is a supremely obvious fix to any sort of fiscal imbalance, yet it’s also a plan that lacks an ideological, partisan tradition to defend it. If anything, it would require the backing of some sort of political leader who had a combination of both left and right wing ideas, and as we all know, such a creature is as implausible as a unicorn.

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^ 162 Comments...

  1. diceman

    1. Entitlement spending during the Bush era was double the spending on the two wars, so it rightly deserves to be cut. The government is required to defend the country.

    2. Bush era tax cuts were largely for the middle class, and the Obama tax will be a tax on the middle class. Only 5% of the tax cuts went to households making more than $250K.

    3. The battle is between government job creation vs. private sector job creation. Private sector creates jobs across the board, from white collar to blue collar, men and women alike. Govt. job creation has been the purview of Obama's deficit spending and it directly benefits the liberal bureaucratic class that prefers a feminist dominated aristocratic system.

  2. Jake

    The debt is too large to be paid as it is. The government needs to cut ALL taxes (for rich, middle and poor) so the economy can grow. The US needs to grow its way out of debt.

  3. William

    Jake are you familiar with the Laffer curve? It is an abstract model that relates government revenue to tax rates – obviously if your tax rates are zero you have no government revenue, if your tax rates are 100% probably no one is going to bother to work so again you have no revenue. The tax rate (or rather the top marginal rate) that maximizes revenue is the midpoint on this curve. Obviously, when setting a tax rate the government has other priorities than just maximizing revenue – even if a crushing tax rate raising more revenue than a lower one if the corresponding slowed growth makes the country that much worse a place to live and might not be a net plus. However, in order to get more revenue by lowering taxes your tax rate has to be above the midpoint of the Laffer curve – a rate that is widely believed by economist to be around 70%, much higher than any marginal rate currently in use in the US. The US economy does need to grow to get us out of this mess, but lowering taxes will be a net negative towards deficit reduction.

  4. Doragoon

    the rich only have a trillion dollars in assets, not profits. the budget is four times that, and that doesn't even mention the deficit. we could kill the rich and take their stuff and we'd only have enough money to run the government for 3 months. The money just doesn't exist to be taxed.

  5. Psudo

    You're describing an optimum, not a midpoint.

    I think you got the 70% figure from here: http://tinyurl.com/3gfx367 It's Wikipedia's source. The Wikipedia article also misuses the term "midpoint" the same way you did. The source itself does not,

    This source (the only actual study I've found) says the optimum is between 32.67% and 35.21%, based on analysis of US tax rates and revenues between 1959 and 1991: http://tinyurl.com/3t9mxxj

    There is also this informal poll of interested parties: http://tinyurl.com/23u4ylt Most of them claim 70%, or at least don't dispute it. Emmanuel Saez explains some of the theory and calculations behind the 70% figure, which I found interesting, but also notes that the figures used in the calculations (income elasticity estimates, specifically) are themselves highly disputed. I think I trust historic analysis better than abstract theory, but it's nice to know what the theory is.

    The current top marginal tax rate is 35%. Taxes do not need to be cut regardless of which of the estimates one accepts (other than the absurd low-ball guesses), but whether taxes should be raised is still at issue. It matters.

    The deficit and the debt are wisely addressed by balancing the budget, but also by maximizing economic growth. Increasing tax revenue does one of those things, but cutting spending (including defence spending!) does both.

  6. Psudo

    You're wrong that the rich have only a trillion dollars. The top 29 richest Americans have a half trillion in assets between them. http://www.forbes.com/wealth/forbes-400/list The other 3 million people in the top 1% of wage earners (the so-called super-rich) surely possess more than that many times over.

    Total assets of the USA are around $188 trillion. http://rutledgecapital.com/2009/05/24/total-asset… Surely the 'rich' proportion of that is more than enough to feed the federal budget for years and years. It's evil and tyrannical for the government to steal money just because they can't balance their budget, but the math works fine.

    The total income of every business and person in America in a given year is called Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It was $14.1 trillion in 2010. That's a lot more than profit (which is income minus expenses), but far less than assets (which is an accumulation of profits over time). It's much like if you confused the budget deficit (annual) with the national debt (accumulated over time).

    Federal spending (the budget with deficit spending included) was almost exactly $4 trillion in 2009, so you got the number right. Federal income (the budget without even mentioning the deficit) has never been within a trillion dollars of that, and isn't projected to be until 2017. Budget numbers [pdf] http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/pdf/summar

    Every sentence in your post is wrong about something.

  7. Dan

    Republicans want to cut funding to social programs because they always want to cut social programs… the national debt is just a convenient excuse to bring it up. Democrats want to raise taxes on the rich because they always want to raise taxes on the rich… the national debt is just a convenient excuse to bring it up.

    Neither side is taking this as a serious issue and are just using it to push their own little pet causes that they'd be pushing just as hard anyway. If they actually took the time to fix this it wouldn't be a nice convenient scape goat anymore.

  8. Jake

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/04/18/taxes-

    The GOVERNMENT can't spend its way out of debt.

    Also we cannot tax our way out of THIS debt. The debt is too large. Look at what the tax rate would have to be.

    Also look at what government spending generates. 7 or 8 dollars in spending generates only 1 dollar back in the economy. That is a complete waste of money.

    Plus look at Reagan and JFK's tax cut. Revenue increased even though the tax rate went down. Explain that. It caused the economy to grow. Problem was spending outgrew spending under Reagan because of the Cold War. Control spending to have a balanced budget, cut taxes to grow the economy and pay the debt.

    You can't ask your employeer for a raise (tax increase) cause you bought a Porsche. You go and get a second job (grow economy). Or declare bankruptcy (which no country can do).

  9. Psudo

    JFK advocated a tax cut in 1963. Congress passed it in 1964. Tax receipts from 1962 to 1966 went (in billions) 99.7, 106.6, [112.6], 116.8, and 130.8 (brackets mark the tax cut year). The increases were 6.9, 6, [4.2], and 14 (brackets mark the increase after the tax cut year). Tax revenues increased every year, tax cut or not, but increase the least right after the tax cut.

    Reagan signed tax reform bills in 1981, 1982, 1984, and 1986. The term "Reagan Tax Cuts" tends to refer to the 1981 and 1986 acts. Tax receipts from 1979 to 1988 were (in billions): 463.3, 517.1, [599.3], [617.8], 600.6, [666.4], 734.0, [769.2], 854.3, and 909.2 (brackets mark tax act years). Tax receipt changes were 53.8, 82.2, [18.5], [-17.2], 65.8, [67.6], 35.2, [85.1], and 54.9 (brackets mark tax act years). The average revenue increase for a year without a tax act is $58.4 billion. The average revenue increase for a year with a tax act is $38.5 billion. The average for the Reagan Tax Cut years is $51.8. Revenue increased more during the years without tax reform than during years with tax reform, though the Reagan Tax Cuts fell short by less than the other two tax reforms (during which the normal tax revenue increase was reduced nearly to zero).

    Tax revenue information: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayaf

    Tax cuts do not increase revenue in the short term. Maybe they do in the long term by increasing economic growth, but that's virtually impossible to prove. It's the kind of thing that political partisans believe or dispute based on faith and fantasy.

    I agree that cutting spending does more to fight deficits and debt than raising taxes, but both can be done at once for an even more effective solution than either one alone. I think Democrats and Republicans could make a deal where three things happen at once and in proportion: for every dollar in tax receipts increase, a dollar of defence spending and two dollars of non-defence spending is cut. All of that goes toward balancing the budget, and each party likes half of what they get. It's the closest thing to a bipartisan balanced budget deal I can think of.

  10. olya

    Interesting thinking…

  11. Jon B.

    Fact is, raising taxes kills jobs. It destroys the surplus income needed to hire new employees and often to retain current ones, and pushes struggling businesses into bankruptcy. Cutting taxes, until you reach the crest of the Laffer Curve, raises tax revenues by increasing the number of people paying taxes–this is particularly true in our messed up progressive taxation system.

    Ryan's budget is as serious as we can hope to see until someone has the cajones to start eliminating Cabinet Offices. As for cutting Defense, remember that the US is still in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Korea, and Libya; Iran and N.Korea pursue nuclear weapons unimpeded; Mexico is becoming a failed state of narco-terrorism; al Qaeda & Co. are still active and recruiting; and China and Putin are expanding their influence. The US needs to spend more on Defense, because the real world doesn't wait for us to get our finances in order.

  12. Aidinthel

    You know what else kills jobs? Runaway inflation when people lose faith in a country's credit. The U.S. has much lower taxes than other first-world nations. We can afford to pay a bit more.

    Iran and North Korea do not have the resources to be serious threats. Even if they did get nuclear weapons and seriously threatened to use them the best way to deal with it would be a quick surgical strike directly on the nuclear facilities, not a full-scale invasion. You are overstating Mexico's weakness, and even if you weren't its a police and border security issue, not a military one. As for al Qaeda, you don't fight terrorists with soldiers, you fight them with intelligence services and the police. China and Russia have too much invested in international trade to risk war with the United States. To butcher a phrase, the US needs to spend smarter, not harder.

    Also, I find it a bit odd that you capitalized "defense" as though it were a proper noun.

  13. Garuda

    This is kinda depressing. Here in Britain this arguement has been going on for the last year or so, and shows no signs of stopping yet. If you raise taxes, people will complain. If you cut spending, people will complain. If you do both or nothing, people will complain.

    I strongly suspect that dealing with a deficit and a governmental debt is one of these "damned if you do, damned if you don't" moments in politics…

  14. Psudo

    Math and tax experts both say tax cuts have never paid for themselves. http://www.factcheck.org/taxes/supply-side_spin.hhttp://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/have_tax_cu

    I agree with you that increased taxes hurt economic growth, indulge wasteful spending, and closing loopholes is so much preferable. I prefer spending cuts to tax increases. But we have a huge deficit right now which is hurting all Americans by driving up inflation. I think picking and choosing only a few, specific means of correcting it is a failure to take complete, decisive action. We need both spending cuts (specifically of the big programs like Social Security and Defense) and tax increases.

    Incidentally, we could increase tax revenue by about a half trillion dollars by increasing the tax rate from 35 to 45% on the top 5% of Americans. Want me to explain the math I did to come to that conclusion? Match that with an equal amount of spending cuts, and the deficit would be gone.

  15. Jon B.

    Actually, inflation helps create jobs, which is why Obama's Treasury (and Dubya's before) and the Fed keep printing money. It makes the currency more liquid, so people spend more.

    The US has the highest corporate tax in the developed world (officially higher than Japan now). Our personal taxes are indecipherable due to the complications in our tax code, but are generally considered to be around the 30% range for the 49% of the population actually expected to pay them (the productive class), which is still rather high (before State and Local taxes, of course).

    A quick surgical strike would be very expensive, and as Libya is showing, not that quick or surgical. Iran is already hardening their sites, and as we learned in Iraq, we have no way of knowing where their facilities will be. A "serious threat" is in the eye of the beholder, I suppose. Iran could build a nuke and threaten to use it on Saudi Arabia or Israel if the international community doesn't bribe them with concessions (which North Korea is already doing). If Iran gets nuclear weapons, then Egypt and Saudi Arabia will feel obliged to build nukes of their own, and we'll see the death of the Nonproliferation Movement.

    Mexico could very well become a military issue, as we are already seeing that the police and Border Patrol cannot match the weaponry of the drug runners, and the Mexican Army often helps the gangsters, even firing at American law enforcement.

    As for Al Qaeda; our police have no jurisdiction overseas, and our Intel Services need protection from the military when they're abroad. And when people discuss cutting Defense spending, they generally lump HUMINT and ELINT in with that.

    As for the Grammar Nazi jab, when referring to Defense as in the DoD, it's proper to capitalize it, just as one would capitalize Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, etc.

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